Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.76 – 306.93

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253 ±15

5933JudgeMent Call Robotics

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 9.79Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2972Gears and Buccaneers

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 34.61Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10384Sparkanovas

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 14.36Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.4 ±12.2

8885Socratic Schematics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 6.95Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 104.48Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 195.5Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5933, 2972, 10384

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.8 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5933, 2972, 10384

Auto

18.3 39%

Teleop

12.6 27%

Endgame

16.6 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8885, 9277, 7183

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.9 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8885, 9277, 7183

Auto

45.5 15%

Teleop

180.1 60%

Endgame

77.0 25%

Strengths

· 7183 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score58.8pts

Blue projected score306.9pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -248.2
Score range: 25–341
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 306 vs event baseline 187.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253Season APEX495.4

18.3Auto45.5

12.6Teleop180.1

16.6Endgame77

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	84
teleop	30	109
endgame	14	43
foul	0	0
total	70	236

Result

Final score

70 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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