Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

8.27 – 82.72

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

90 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 49.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162.6 ±16.5

2594Naskcorpions

Season APEX 68.5Event APEX 21.5Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX -1.08Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9138Robo Hawks

Provisional

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX -12.15Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.3 ±17.5

9037HHS Black Ops

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 10.73Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7906Underdogs

Provisional

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 54.76Rank 19Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

11100Team Epsilon

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 17.23Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2594, 4550, 9138

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2594, 4550, 9138

Auto

8.0 100%

Teleop

-9.6 0%

Endgame

9.6 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9037, 7906, 11100

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9037, 7906, 11100

Auto

21.7 28%

Teleop

30.7 39%

Endgame

26.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score8.3pts

Blue projected score82.7pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.4
Score range: -26–117
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 189.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162.6Season APEX234.3

8Auto21.7

-9.6Teleop30.7

9.6Endgame26.3

63Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	11
teleop	50	26
endgame	23	29
foul	0	0
total	90	66

Result

Final score

90 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 49.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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