Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.04 – 139.97

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 151.2 ±13.9

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX -6.64Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5071Charger Robotics

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 35.95Rank 37Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 27.73Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.9 ±13.9

3424Corax

Season APEX 119.3Event APEX 68.35Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 27.73Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2726Red Pebble Rebels

Season APEX 158.9Event APEX 43.89Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10933, 5071, 3288

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10933, 5071, 3288

Auto

12.5 22%

Teleop

30.3 52%

Endgame

15.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3424, 1566, 2726

/ 100 compat

Projected

140 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3424, 1566, 2726

Auto

-1.6 0%

Teleop

78.1 60%

Endgame

52.6 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57pts

Blue projected score140pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.9
Score range: 23–174
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 191.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

151.2Season APEX341.9

12.5Auto-1.6

30.3Teleop78.1

15Endgame52.6

52Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	14
teleop	35	37
endgame	16	27
foul	0	30
total	68	108

Result

Final score

68 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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