Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.03 – 116.14

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

147 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 78.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 160.1 ±16.5

4175Coded Summit

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 80.81Rank 22Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7895Trobots

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 29.36Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7634New Hawks

Provisional

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 3.86Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.5 ±14.9

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX 1.31Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 97.79Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4598ICARUS INNOVATED

Season APEX 49Event APEX 17.04Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4175, 7895, 7634

/ 100 compat

Projected

114 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4175, 7895, 7634

Auto

37.7 34%

Teleop

57.2 51%

Endgame

16.2 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1569, 3243, 4598

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1569, 3243, 4598

Auto

8.1 7%

Teleop

77.3 64%

Endgame

36.1 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score114pts

Blue projected score116.1pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.1
Score range: 80–150
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 191.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

160.1Season APEX350.5

37.7Auto8.1

57.2Teleop77.3

16.2Endgame36.1

42Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	38
teleop	98	179
endgame	31	24
foul	0	0
total	147	241

Result

Final score

147 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 78.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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