Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.07 – 364.14

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 457

Prediction correct · off by 63 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.1 ±18.6

3166Rooks

Provisional

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 40.46Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 60.31Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10034GammaLand

Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 34.3Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 566.8 ±10

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 99.8Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 48.6Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 215.74Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3166, 10256, 10034

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3166, 10256, 10034

Auto

20.2 14%

Teleop

76.0 53%

Endgame

47.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3245, 1891, 359

/ 100 compat

Projected

364.1 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3245, 1891, 359

Auto

69.2 20%

Teleop

236.2 67%

Endgame

49.2 14%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score135.1pts

Blue projected score364.1pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -229.1
Score range: 101–398
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 559 vs event baseline 189.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.1Season APEX566.8

20.2Auto69.2

76Teleop236.2

47.1Endgame49.2

0Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	80
teleop	55	297
endgame	22	80
foul	5	0
total	102	457

Result

Final score

102 – 457

Prediction correct · off by 63 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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