Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

385.64 – 29.1

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

513 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 71.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 617.8 ±11.7

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 84.5Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 155.47Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 145.67Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.1 ±14.5

4585Husky Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 12.33Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7755Phantom Circuits

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 7.41Rank 17Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 92

8885Socratic Schematics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 9.36Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10988, 2122, 9726

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.6 pts

~2.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10988, 2122, 9726

Auto

92.9 25%

Teleop

221.5 59%

Endgame

61.8 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4585, 7755, 8885

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4585, 7755, 8885

Auto

17.9 81%

Teleop

6.4 29%

Endgame

-2.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.79 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score385.6pts

Blue projected score29.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 356.5
Score range: -5–420
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 526 vs event baseline 188.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

617.8Season APEX195.1

92.9Auto17.9

221.5Teleop6.4

61.8Endgame-2.3

30Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	13
teleop	322	0
endgame	100	0
foul	0	0
total	513	13

Result

Final score

513 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 71.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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