Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.24 – 270.7

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 14 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.7 ±14.5

11100Team Epsilon

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 17.61Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2594Naskcorpions

Season APEX 68.5Event APEX 25.93Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 92.7Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 440.3 ±12.8

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX -1.13Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 201.39Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3424Corax

Season APEX 119.3Event APEX 70.44Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11100, 2594, 1708

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11100, 2594, 1708

Auto

20.0 15%

Teleop

70.8 52%

Endgame

45.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10933, 7183, 3424

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10933, 7183, 3424

Auto

22.9 9%

Teleop

168.4 63%

Endgame

77.2 29%

Strengths

· 7183 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.2pts

Blue projected score270.7pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -134.5
Score range: 102–305
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 188.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.7Season APEX440.3

20Auto22.9

70.8Teleop168.4

45Endgame77.2

111Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	18
teleop	64	183
endgame	30	61
foul	5	0
total	117	262

Result

Final score

117 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 14 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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