Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.26 – 107.23

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

274 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.7 ±11.6

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 96.65Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 104.26Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 28.35Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 152.9 ±17

4175Coded Summit

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 80.41Rank 22Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5071Charger Robotics

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 36.12Rank 37Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

8805NKST36

Provisional

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX -9.3Rank 40Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3243, 9277, 3288

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3243, 9277, 3288

Auto

23.2 10%

Teleop

122.1 53%

Endgame

84.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4175, 5071, 8805

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4175, 5071, 8805

Auto

23.5 23%

Teleop

63.3 63%

Endgame

13.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score229.3pts

Blue projected score107.2pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122
Score range: 73–263
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 188.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.7Season APEX152.9

23.2Auto23.5

122.1Teleop63.3

84.4Endgame13.8

20Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	31
teleop	159	77
endgame	59	17
foul	0	0
total	274	125

Result

Final score

274 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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