Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

291.58 – 108.58

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

336 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 58 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.4 ±15

2726Red Pebble Rebels

Season APEX 158.9Event APEX 44.24Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 213.15Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3166Rooks

Provisional

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 34.19Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.7 ±18.6

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 67.7Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10384Sparkanovas

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 25.02Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7634New Hawks

Provisional

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 15.86Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2726, 359, 3166

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2726, 359, 3166

Auto

48.3 17%

Teleop

164.7 58%

Endgame

72.0 25%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10256, 10384, 7634

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10256, 10384, 7634

Auto

6.2 6%

Teleop

48.8 50%

Endgame

42.4 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score291.6pts

Blue projected score108.6pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 183
Score range: 75–326
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 188.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.4Season APEX214.7

48.3Auto6.2

164.7Teleop48.8

72Endgame42.4

49Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	22
teleop	192	13
endgame	119	2
foul	0	0
total	336	37

Result

Final score

336 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 58 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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