Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.94 – 69.23

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 38.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.2 ±13.3

74368-Bit Miners

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 35.61Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX 7.83Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 56.5Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.4 ±16.3

9037HHS Black Ops

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 14.56Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 30.14Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4598ICARUS INNOVATED

Season APEX 49Event APEX 24.53Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7436, 1569, 1891

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7436, 1569, 1891

Auto

13.1 14%

Teleop

73.6 80%

Endgame

5.1 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9037, 1566, 4598

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9037, 1566, 4598

Auto

5.1 8%

Teleop

48.4 75%

Endgame

11.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.9pts

Blue projected score69.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.7
Score range: 35–134
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 92 vs event baseline 189.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.2Season APEX195.4

13.1Auto5.1

73.6Teleop48.4

5.1Endgame11.4

24Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	15
teleop	19	25
endgame	11	8
foul	0	0
total	44	48

Result

Final score

44 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 38.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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