Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.11 – 116.19

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.9 ±13.9

2972Gears and Buccaneers

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 42.48Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 147Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11100Team Epsilon

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 20.63Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.8 ±13

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX -17.8Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5933JudgeMent Call Robotics

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX -8.82Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 142.81Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2972, 9726, 11100

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2972, 9726, 11100

Auto

51.1 26%

Teleop

108.8 55%

Endgame

37.6 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10933, 5933, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10933, 5933, 2122

Auto

43.3 38%

Teleop

48.7 42%

Endgame

23.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.13 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score210.1pts

Blue projected score116.2pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.9
Score range: 82–244
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 189.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.9Season APEX391.8

51.1Auto43.3

108.8Teleop48.7

37.6Endgame23.2

75Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	89
teleop	86	76
endgame	54	40
foul	5	15
total	189	220

Result

Final score

189 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 62.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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