Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.95 – 194.76

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 117.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.5 ±13.9

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 61.56Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2726Red Pebble Rebels

Season APEX 158.9Event APEX 28.24Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2594Naskcorpions

Season APEX 68.5Event APEX -1.85Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.3 ±18.6

10384Sparkanovas

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 36.37Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3166Rooks

Provisional

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 44.14Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8839Shoshone Robotics

Season APEX 156.5Event APEX 114.25Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10988, 2726, 2594

/ 100 compat

Projected

88 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10988, 2726, 2594

Auto

14.0 18%

Teleop

58.4 73%

Endgame

7.4 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10384, 3166, 8839

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10384, 3166, 8839

Auto

21.9 12%

Teleop

117.4 63%

Endgame

47.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88pts

Blue projected score194.8pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.8
Score range: 54–229
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 189.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.5Season APEX283.3

14Auto21.9

58.4Teleop117.4

7.4Endgame47

56Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	53
teleop	149	38
endgame	81	30
foul	0	0
total	250	121

Result

Final score

250 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 117.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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