Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.77 – 123.53

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.2 ±16.6

9138Robo Hawks

Provisional

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX -23.25Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5071Charger Robotics

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 27.53Rank 37Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 95.49Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.3 ±15

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 90.13Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10034GammaLand

Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 23.04Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7755Phantom Circuits

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 10.36Rank 17Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9138, 5071, 9277

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9138, 5071, 9277

Auto

39.3 43%

Teleop

39.1 43%

Endgame

12.3 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1708, 10034, 7755

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1708, 10034, 7755

Auto

29.2 21%

Teleop

94.2 69%

Endgame

13.7 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.8pts

Blue projected score123.5pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.8
Score range: 66–158
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 189.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.2Season APEX422.3

39.3Auto29.2

39.1Teleop94.2

12.3Endgame13.7

55Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	35
teleop	79	103
endgame	28	23
foul	0	0
total	138	161

Result

Final score

138 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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