Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.66 – 253.95

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.2 ±16.3

8885Socratic Schematics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 14.13Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 70.47Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9037HHS Black Ops

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 21.06Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.7 ±11.7

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX 9.35Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 10.15Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 234.45Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8885, 10256, 9037

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8885, 10256, 9037

Auto

6.6 6%

Teleop

57.3 56%

Endgame

37.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1569, 3288, 7426

/ 100 compat

Projected

254 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1569, 3288, 7426

Auto

39.9 16%

Teleop

140.4 55%

Endgame

76.2 30%

Strengths

· 7426 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.7pts

Blue projected score254pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -148.3
Score range: 72–288
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 189.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.2Season APEX427.7

6.6Auto39.9

57.3Teleop140.4

37.9Endgame76.2

61Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	15
teleop	44	187
endgame	23	88
foul	5	0
total	90	290

Result

Final score

90 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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