Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.56 – 201.46

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 393

Prediction missed · off by 175.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.4 ±14.9

7895Trobots

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 60.23Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4598ICARUS INNOVATED

Season APEX 49Event APEX 44.84Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 121.49Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.5 ±12

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 187.01Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 12.99Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

74368-Bit Miners

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 1.46Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7895, 4598, 3245

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7895, 4598, 3245

Auto

35.5 15%

Teleop

153.4 67%

Endgame

40.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 359, 1566, 7436

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 1566, 7436

Auto

47.7 24%

Teleop

109.4 56%

Endgame

37.8 19%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score226.6pts

Blue projected score201.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.1
Score range: 167–261
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 188.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.4Season APEX393.5

35.5Auto47.7

153.4Teleop109.4

40.8Endgame37.8

40Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	37
teleop	51	279
endgame	0	62
foul	5	15
total	67	393

Result

Final score

67 – 393

Prediction missed · off by 175.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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