Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.23 – 79.9

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

294 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 90.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396.5 ±13.9

10384Sparkanovas

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 13.42Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 117.56Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2726Red Pebble Rebels

Season APEX 158.9Event APEX -2.75Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.6 ±17.5

8805NKST36

Provisional

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 13.45Rank 40Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10034GammaLand

Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 42.3Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

11100Team Epsilon

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 24.15Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10384, 9726, 2726

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10384, 9726, 2726

Auto

16.2 13%

Teleop

62.7 52%

Endgame

42.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8805, 10034, 11100

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8805, 10034, 11100

Auto

21.4 28%

Teleop

32.5 43%

Endgame

21.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score128.2pts

Blue projected score79.9pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.3
Score range: 46–162
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 186.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396.5Season APEX345.6

16.2Auto21.4

62.7Teleop32.5

42Endgame21.7

46Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	17
teleop	166	25
endgame	39	23
foul	45	0
total	294	65

Result

Final score

294 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 90.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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