Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.15 – 132.29

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 101.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.5 ±15

5933JudgeMent Call Robotics

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 7.69Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7755Phantom Circuits

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 32.8Rank 17Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 92

4175Coded Summit

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 86.66Rank 22Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326.7 ±15.3

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX -12.04Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8839Shoshone Robotics

Season APEX 156.5Event APEX 95.27Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 49.06Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5933, 7755, 4175

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5933, 7755, 4175

Auto

41.1 32%

Teleop

94.3 74%

Endgame

-8.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4550, 8839, 1891

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4550, 8839, 1891

Auto

23.2 19%

Teleop

87.0 70%

Endgame

14.7 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127.2pts

Blue projected score132.3pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.1
Score range: 93–166
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 187.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.5Season APEX326.7

41.1Auto23.2

94.3Teleop87

-8.2Endgame14.7

26Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	47
teleop	9	142
endgame	7	57
foul	5	0
total	37	246

Result

Final score

37 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 101.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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