Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.6 – 122.53

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

91 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260 ±13.9

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 20.55Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9037HHS Black Ops

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 10.25Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2972Gears and Buccaneers

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 36.8Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.4 ±16.5

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 92.33Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7906Underdogs

Provisional

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 29.73Rank 19Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX 0.47Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3288, 9037, 2972

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3288, 9037, 2972

Auto

9.8 15%

Teleop

21.7 34%

Endgame

33.2 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1708, 7906, 1569

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1708, 7906, 1569

Auto

19.2 15%

Teleop

91.5 73%

Endgame

14.6 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score67.6pts

Blue projected score122.5pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.9
Score range: 34–157
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 189.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260Season APEX241.4

9.8Auto19.2

21.7Teleop91.5

33.2Endgame14.6

61Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	30
teleop	47	83
endgame	20	34
foul	5	0
total	91	147

Result

Final score

91 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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