Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.19 – 215.62

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.6 ±16.5

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 9.87Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7895Trobots

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 58.97Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9138Robo Hawks

Provisional

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX -12.65Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.9 ±15.3

4585Husky Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 42.81Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 74.3Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 98.51Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1566, 7895, 9138

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1566, 7895, 9138

Auto

26.7 56%

Teleop

16.8 35%

Endgame

3.9 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4585, 10256, 9277

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4585, 10256, 9277

Auto

24.6 12%

Teleop

106.6 50%

Endgame

80.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score56.2pts

Blue projected score215.6pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -159.4
Score range: 21–251
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 191.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.6Season APEX330.9

26.7Auto24.6

16.8Teleop106.6

3.9Endgame80.8

58Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	36
teleop	10	107
endgame	8	43
foul	0	15
total	28	201

Result

Final score

28 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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