Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 161.44

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.9 ±13.9

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX -9.42Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX -14.61Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX -24.86Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 566.9 ±16.3

2726Red Pebble Rebels

Season APEX 158.9Event APEX 1.27Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8839Shoshone Robotics

Season APEX 156.5Event APEX 101.02Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10034GammaLand

Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 59.15Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1569, 10933, 4550

/ 100 compat

Projected

-48.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1569, 10933, 4550

Auto

4.1 0%

Teleop

-28.4 64%

Endgame

-20.4 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2726, 8839, 10034

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.4 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2726, 8839, 10034

Auto

13.3 8%

Teleop

107.4 66%

Endgame

42.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-48.9pts

Blue projected score161.4pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -161.4
Score range: -34–195
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 191.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.9Season APEX566.9

4.1Auto13.3

-28.4Teleop107.4

-20.4Endgame42.4

62Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	36
teleop	16	72
endgame	6	15
foul	0	0
total	22	123

Result

Final score

22 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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