Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.35 – 156.94

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.6 ±15.3

7906Underdogs

Provisional

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 20.89Rank 19Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

8885Socratic Schematics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX -3.66Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 192.12Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.4 ±13.9

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 112.6Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11100Team Epsilon

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 19.84Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 24.5Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7906, 8885, 7426

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7906, 8885, 7426

Auto

38.2 18%

Teleop

131.9 61%

Endgame

46.5 21%

Strengths

· 7426 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9277, 11100, 1566

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9277, 11100, 1566

Auto

33.6 22%

Teleop

57.6 37%

Endgame

63.7 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score209.4pts

Blue projected score156.9pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.4
Score range: 123–243
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 433 vs event baseline 188.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.6Season APEX307.4

38.2Auto33.6

131.9Teleop57.6

46.5Endgame63.7

91Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	34
teleop	176	45
endgame	67	31
foul	15	15
total	308	125

Result

Final score

308 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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