Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

210.28 – 338.94

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

236 – 606

Prediction correct · off by 146.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.5 ±13.9

5071Charger Robotics

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 29.4Rank 37Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 127.65Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4585Husky Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 53.23Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 643.2 ±13.2

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 107.47Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 193.61Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 37.86Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5071, 6487, 4585

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5071, 6487, 4585

Auto

39.8 20%

Teleop

141.8 70%

Endgame

22.2 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 359, 7183, 10256

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 7183, 10256

Auto

31.6 9%

Teleop

223.7 66%

Endgame

83.5 25%

Strengths

· 7183 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score210.3pts

Blue projected score338.9pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -128.7
Score range: 177–372
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 842 vs event baseline 181.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.5Season APEX643.2

39.8Auto31.6

141.8Teleop223.7

22.2Endgame83.5

85Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	61
teleop	121	384
endgame	62	156
foul	10	5
total	236	606

Result

Final score

236 – 606

Prediction correct · off by 146.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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