Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.98 – 66.08

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

363 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 92.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 560.5 ±12.8

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 134.4Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2972Gears and Buccaneers

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 2.46Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 51.12Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.1 ±15.8

4598ICARUS INNOVATED

Season APEX 49Event APEX 86.97Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2594Naskcorpions

Season APEX 68.5Event APEX 7.59Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

74368-Bit Miners

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX -28.48Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3006, 2972, 10988

/ 100 compat

Projected

188 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3006, 2972, 10988

Auto

41.5 24%

Teleop

99.7 58%

Endgame

31.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4598, 2594, 7436

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4598, 2594, 7436

Auto

8.3 13%

Teleop

43.4 66%

Endgame

14.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.28 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score188pts

Blue projected score66.1pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 121.9
Score range: 34–220
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 180.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

560.5Season APEX179.1

41.5Auto8.3

99.7Teleop43.4

31.4Endgame14.2

20Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	17
teleop	247	37
endgame	41	2
foul	0	0
total	363	56

Result

Final score

363 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 92.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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