Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.63 – 96.57

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410.5 ±15.1

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 202.34Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4598ICARUS INNOVATED

Season APEX 49Event APEX 32.18Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10384Sparkanovas

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 15.11Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.4 ±15

3424Corax

Season APEX 119.3Event APEX 65.03Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5933JudgeMent Call Robotics

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 15.15Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5071Charger Robotics

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 16.39Rank 37Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7426, 4598, 10384

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7426, 4598, 10384

Auto

43.4 17%

Teleop

146.2 58%

Endgame

60.7 24%

Strengths

· 7426 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3424, 5933, 5071

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3424, 5933, 5071

Auto

24.2 24%

Teleop

47.8 48%

Endgame

28.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score249.6pts

Blue projected score96.6pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 153.1
Score range: 59–288
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 210.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410.5Season APEX227.4

43.4Auto24.2

146.2Teleop47.8

60.7Endgame28

10Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	13
teleop	142	39
endgame	104	0
foul	0	5
total	254	57

Result

Final score

254 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 22 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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