Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.94 – 259.32

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

145 – 330

Prediction correct · off by 92.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.7 ±18.8

7634New Hawks

Provisional

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 35.2Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3424Corax

Season APEX 119.3Event APEX 17.96Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9138Robo Hawks

Provisional

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX -22.22Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.8 ±11.6

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 24.19Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 95.07Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 140.06Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7634, 3424, 9138

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7634, 3424, 9138

Auto

23.9 97%

Teleop

11.3 46%

Endgame

-10.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3288, 9726, 3245

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.3 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3288, 9726, 3245

Auto

43.1 17%

Teleop

140.5 56%

Endgame

67.8 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score30.9pts

Blue projected score259.3pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -228.4
Score range: -1–291
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 475 vs event baseline 178.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.7Season APEX415.8

23.9Auto43.1

11.3Teleop140.5

-10.6Endgame67.8

48Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	68
teleop	67	195
endgame	48	67
foul	5	0
total	145	330

Result

Final score

145 – 330

Prediction correct · off by 92.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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