Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

284.45 – 128.5

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

267 – 274

Prediction missed · off by 81.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 452 ±14.9

8839Shoshone Robotics

Season APEX 156.5Event APEX 119.25Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 97.56Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 67.64Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411 ±12.4

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 97.87Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX -38.32Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7895Trobots

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 68.95Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8839, 1708, 3243

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.5 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8839, 1708, 3243

Auto

21.4 7%

Teleop

186.1 64%

Endgame

84.1 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2122, 1569, 7895

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2122, 1569, 7895

Auto

35.0 29%

Teleop

58.8 48%

Endgame

27.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score284.5pts

Blue projected score128.5pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156
Score range: 98–315
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 541 vs event baseline 174.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

452Season APEX411

21.4Auto35

186.1Teleop58.8

84.1Endgame27.8

127Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	78
teleop	190	155
endgame	68	36
foul	0	5
total	267	274

Result

Final score

267 – 274

Prediction missed · off by 81.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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