Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

277.17 – 45.7

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 75.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444 ±11.6

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX -1.92Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 58.25Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 220.84Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.9 ±13.9

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 72.36Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5071Charger Robotics

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 2.36Rank 37Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

74368-Bit Miners

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX -29.02Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3288, 1891, 7183

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.2 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3288, 1891, 7183

Auto

34.9 13%

Teleop

169.5 64%

Endgame

59.4 23%

Strengths

· 7183 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9726, 5071, 7436

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9726, 5071, 7436

Auto

14.8 41%

Teleop

30.1 83%

Endgame

-8.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.58 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score277.2pts

Blue projected score45.7pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 231.5
Score range: 15–308
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 474 vs event baseline 169.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444Season APEX270.9

34.9Auto14.8

169.5Teleop30.1

59.4Endgame-8.6

67Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	39
teleop	202	87
endgame	96	28
foul	0	5
total	315	159

Result

Final score

315 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 75.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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