Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251.38 – 58.67

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 42 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.2 ±15

7634New Hawks

Provisional

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 46.63Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 72.45Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 132.3Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 114.3 ±19.2

8805NKST36

Provisional

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 43.77Rank 40Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9138Robo Hawks

Provisional

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX -8.97Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5933JudgeMent Call Robotics

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 23.87Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7634, 10988, 359

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.4 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7634, 10988, 359

Auto

47.3 20%

Teleop

163.4 69%

Endgame

27.8 12%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8805, 9138, 5933

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8805, 9138, 5933

Auto

26.0 65%

Teleop

16.1 41%

Endgame

-2.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.55 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score251.4pts

Blue projected score58.7pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 192.7
Score range: 28–282
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 172.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.2Season APEX114.3

47.3Auto26

163.4Teleop16.1

27.8Endgame-2.4

39Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	18
teleop	125	1
endgame	21	1
foul	0	0
total	206	20

Result

Final score

206 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 42 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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