Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.02 – 50.74

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 207

Prediction missed · off by 120.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.6 ±14.5

4585Husky Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 53.59Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3424Corax

Season APEX 119.3Event APEX 49.66Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11100Team Epsilon

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 65.77Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.2 ±12.8

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 89.72Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2972Gears and Buccaneers

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX -9.69Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX -29.29Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4585, 3424, 11100

/ 100 compat

Projected

169 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4585, 3424, 11100

Auto

20.3 13%

Teleop

106.5 67%

Endgame

33.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3245, 2972, 4550

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3245, 2972, 4550

Auto

15.9 43%

Teleop

17.1 46%

Endgame

3.9 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score169pts

Blue projected score50.7pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.3
Score range: 20–200
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 173.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.6Season APEX376.2

20.3Auto15.9

106.5Teleop17.1

33Endgame3.9

33Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	38
teleop	29	109
endgame	42	60
foul	0	0
total	84	207

Result

Final score

84 – 207

Prediction missed · off by 120.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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