Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.77 – 195.97

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

228 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 77.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.8 ±15.8

7755Phantom Circuits

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 26Rank 17Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 92

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 86.26Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7906Underdogs

Provisional

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX -6.49Rank 19Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 424.9 ±13.3

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 100.59Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4175Coded Summit

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 81.58Rank 22Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2726Red Pebble Rebels

Season APEX 158.9Event APEX 13.8Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7755, 2122, 7906

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7755, 2122, 7906

Auto

19.2 20%

Teleop

55.5 57%

Endgame

23.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6487, 4175, 2726

/ 100 compat

Projected

196 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6487, 4175, 2726

Auto

33.3 18%

Teleop

110.2 59%

Endgame

42.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.8pts

Blue projected score196pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.2
Score range: 75–227
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 456 vs event baseline 171.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.8Season APEX424.9

19.2Auto33.3

55.5Teleop110.2

23.5Endgame42.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	39
teleop	136	146
endgame	28	43
foul	0	0
total	228	228

Result

Final score

228 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 77.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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