Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.81 – 125.09

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

270 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 61.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 592.6 ±13.9

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 72.38Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 64.45Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 34.98Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.5 ±13.9

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 83.83Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9037HHS Black Ops

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX -9.45Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 50.71Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3243, 3006, 10256

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3243, 3006, 10256

Auto

31.4 20%

Teleop

75.8 48%

Endgame

51.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9277, 9037, 10933

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9277, 9037, 10933

Auto

17.6 15%

Teleop

57.9 50%

Endgame

40.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score171.8pts

Blue projected score125.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.7
Score range: 94–203
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 170.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

592.6Season APEX300.5

31.4Auto17.6

75.8Teleop57.9

51.5Endgame40

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	26
teleop	161	49
endgame	95	26
foul	0	0
total	270	101

Result

Final score

270 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 61.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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