Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

302.12 – 260.64

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 98.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 499.1 ±15.3

8839Shoshone Robotics

Season APEX 156.5Event APEX 111.98Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 82.1Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 108.04Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.5 ±11.4

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 16.6Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 208.6Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 35.44Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8839, 9277, 10988

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8839, 9277, 10988

Auto

56.9 19%

Teleop

181.2 60%

Endgame

63.3 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4550, 359, 3288

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4550, 359, 3288

Auto

47.0 18%

Teleop

151.3 56%

Endgame

69.6 26%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score302.1pts

Blue projected score260.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.5
Score range: 223–340
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 210.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

499.1Season APEX394.5

56.9Auto47

181.2Teleop151.3

63.3Endgame69.6

4Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	28
teleop	180	22
endgame	70	23
foul	10	0
total	311	73

Result

Final score

311 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 98.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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