Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.88 – 194.95

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 8.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.2 ±14.5

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 57.99Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10384Sparkanovas

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 26.79Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 45.1Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.4 ±17.7

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 85.59Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3166Rooks

Provisional

Season APEX 50.3Event APEX 53.11Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4598ICARUS INNOVATED

Season APEX 49Event APEX 56.25Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1566, 10384, 1708

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1566, 10384, 1708

Auto

8.5 7%

Teleop

64.8 52%

Endgame

51.9 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9726, 3166, 4598

/ 100 compat

Projected

195 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9726, 3166, 4598

Auto

28.5 14%

Teleop

136.1 68%

Endgame

35.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.9pts

Blue projected score195pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.1
Score range: 99–226
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 170.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.2Season APEX260.4

8.5Auto28.5

64.8Teleop136.1

51.9Endgame35.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	43
teleop	85	107
endgame	45	52
foul	0	0
total	140	202

Result

Final score

140 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 8.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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