Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

247.81 – 166.74

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 418.1 ±14.8

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 190.61Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9138Robo Hawks

Provisional

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 9.47Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 47.73Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.2 ±12.8

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 214.44Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2594Naskcorpions

Season APEX 68.5Event APEX -5.84Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX -41.86Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7426, 9138, 1891

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7426, 9138, 1891

Auto

31.2 14%

Teleop

136.7 60%

Endgame

60.7 27%

Strengths

· 7426 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7183, 2594, 1569

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7183, 2594, 1569

Auto

21.5 13%

Teleop

112.1 69%

Endgame

29.1 18%

Strengths

· 7183 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score247.8pts

Blue projected score166.7pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.1
Score range: 137–278
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 167.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

418.1Season APEX429.2

31.2Auto21.5

136.7Teleop112.1

60.7Endgame29.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	24
teleop	133	137
endgame	39	43
foul	5	0
total	235	204

Result

Final score

235 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 25 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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