Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.35 – 0

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 97.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.6 ±13.9

74368-Bit Miners

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 18.81Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7895Trobots

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 126.45Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2972Gears and Buccaneers

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 24.09Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182 ±15

5071Charger Robotics

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX -25.01Rank 37Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

11100Team Epsilon

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 54.97Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX -32.16Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7436, 7895, 2972

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7436, 7895, 2972

Auto

30.5 19%

Teleop

91.7 58%

Endgame

34.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5071, 11100, 4550

/ 100 compat

Projected

-2.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5071, 11100, 4550

Auto

-3.7 100%

Teleop

-9.2 100%

Endgame

9.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score169.4pts

Blue projected score-2.2pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169.4
Score range: -31–200
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 92 vs event baseline 174.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.6Season APEX182

30.5Auto-3.7

91.7Teleop-9.2

34.6Endgame9.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	19
teleop	13	27
endgame	6	13
foul	0	0
total	33	59

Result

Final score

33 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 97.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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