Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.73 – 38.18

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

356 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 131.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.8 ±12.7

10034GammaLand

Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 38.02Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4585Husky Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX -5.18Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 88.89Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.5 ±16.6

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 10.02Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7634New Hawks

Provisional

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 29.17Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5933JudgeMent Call Robotics

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX -1.01Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10034, 4585, 359

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10034, 4585, 359

Auto

37.1 30%

Teleop

83.9 68%

Endgame

1.6 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3288, 7634, 5933

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3288, 7634, 5933

Auto

10.0 28%

Teleop

14.9 42%

Endgame

10.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score121.7pts

Blue projected score38.2pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.6
Score range: 7–153
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 171.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.8Season APEX162.5

37.1Auto10

83.9Teleop14.9

1.6Endgame10.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	14
teleop	220	22
endgame	66	31
foul	0	0
total	356	67

Result

Final score

356 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 131.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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