Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.17 – 90.62

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378 ±13.5

7755Phantom Circuits

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 47.9Rank 17Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 92

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 71.06Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 28.21Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.8 ±16.2

10384Sparkanovas

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX -3.3Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9138Robo Hawks

Provisional

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 22.86Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 71.06Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7755, 1566, 3243

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7755, 1566, 3243

Auto

20.1 14%

Teleop

81.0 57%

Endgame

41.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10384, 9138, 3006

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10384, 9138, 3006

Auto

8.1 9%

Teleop

41.7 47%

Endgame

38.3 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score147.2pts

Blue projected score90.6pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.5
Score range: 61–177
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 167.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378Season APEX381.8

20.1Auto8.1

81Teleop41.7

41.6Endgame38.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	27
teleop	117	43
endgame	46	24
foul	0	35
total	190	129

Result

Final score

190 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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