Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.26 – 42.78

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 55.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±12.4

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 63.84Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2726Red Pebble Rebels

Season APEX 158.9Event APEX 30.13Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8885Socratic Schematics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 34.29Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.4 ±13.3

3424Corax

Season APEX 119.3Event APEX 29.7Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 34.29Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2594Naskcorpions

Season APEX 68.5Event APEX -21.21Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2122, 2726, 8885

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2122, 2726, 8885

Auto

24.0 22%

Teleop

49.8 45%

Endgame

36.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3424, 1891, 2594

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3424, 1891, 2594

Auto

9.6 27%

Teleop

21.5 60%

Endgame

4.7 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score128.3pts

Blue projected score42.8pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.5
Score range: 12–159
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 173.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.7Season APEX292.4

24Auto9.6

49.8Teleop21.5

36.9Endgame4.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	20
teleop	30	75
endgame	47	9
foul	0	15
total	93	119

Result

Final score

93 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 55.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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