Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.21 – 173.04

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 607

Prediction correct · off by 218.6 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.9 ±18.8

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX -7.66Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8805NKST36

Provisional

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 64.33Rank 40Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7906Underdogs

Provisional

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 4.54Rank 19Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 603.1 ±11.2

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 96.29Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 50.46Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7895Trobots

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 26.29Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4550, 8805, 7906

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4550, 8805, 7906

Auto

17.3 32%

Teleop

4.1 8%

Endgame

32.4 60%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7183, 7426, 7895

/ 100 compat

Projected

173 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7183, 7426, 7895

Auto

11.5 7%

Teleop

101.3 59%

Endgame

58.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61.2pts

Blue projected score173pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111.8
Score range: 33–201
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 665 vs event baseline 157.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.9Season APEX603.1

17.3Auto11.5

4.1Teleop101.3

32.4Endgame58.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	74
teleop	18	376
endgame	21	152
foul	5	5
total	58	607

Result

Final score

58 – 607

Prediction correct · off by 218.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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