Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
144.96 – 118.3
58%42%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
85 – 88
Prediction missed · off by 45.1 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.3 ±15
Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 22.11Rank 37Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83
Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 65.14Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 57.71Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308.9 ±14.5
Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 87.65Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 0.36Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 30.29Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5071, 10034, 2972
64
/ 100 compatProjected
145 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 5071, 10034, 2972
Auto
31.2 23%
Teleop
75.2 56%
Endgame
26.8 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10988, 4585, 9037
55
/ 100 compatProjected
118.3 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 10988, 4585, 9037
Auto
15.9 14%
Teleop
54.9 48%
Endgame
43.5 38%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.51
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score145pts
Blue projected score118.3pts
Red win probability58%
Event bonus sample172alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 40%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 26.7
- Score range
- 88–175
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
416.3Season APEX308.9
31.2Auto15.9
75.2Teleop54.9
26.8Endgame43.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 18 |
| teleop | 50 | 46 |
| endgame | 14 | 9 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 85 | 88 |
Result
Final score
85 – 88
Prediction missed · off by 45.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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