Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.66 – 220.06

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

167 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.1 ±13.5

2726Red Pebble Rebels

Season APEX 158.9Event APEX 43.08Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11100Team Epsilon

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 26.43Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 109.15Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.4 ±12.9

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 89.6Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9037HHS Black Ops

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 22.96Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 107.5Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2726, 11100, 3245

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2726, 11100, 3245

Auto

20.9 13%

Teleop

94.2 56%

Endgame

52.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3243, 9037, 6487

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3243, 9037, 6487

Auto

33.3 16%

Teleop

131.3 61%

Endgame

50.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score178.7pts

Blue projected score220.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.4
Score range: 141–258
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 210.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.1Season APEX489.4

20.9Auto33.3

94.2Teleop131.3

52.1Endgame50.2

60Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	23
teleop	73	99
endgame	70	58
foul	15	5
total	167	185

Result

Final score

167 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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