Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

368.36 – 415.19

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

504 – 463

Prediction missed · off by 91.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 683 ±11.2

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 200.33Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2972Gears and Buccaneers

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 1.53Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 166.5Rank 8Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 601.4 ±11

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 204.64Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5071Charger Robotics

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 12.64Rank 37Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 197.91Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3006, 2972, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

368.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3006, 2972, 2122

Auto

87.5 24%

Teleop

192.0 54%

Endgame

78.0 22%

Strengths

· 3006 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 359, 5071, 7426

/ 100 compat

Projected

415.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 5071, 7426

Auto

93.1 21%

Teleop

269.8 60%

Endgame

87.8 19%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score368.4pts

Blue projected score415.2pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.8
Score range: 332–451
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 967 vs event baseline 201.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

683Season APEX601.4

87.5Auto93.1

192Teleop269.8

78Endgame87.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	137	95
teleop	268	235
endgame	94	133
foul	5	0
total	504	463

Result

Final score

504 – 463

Prediction missed · off by 91.7 pts

Match videos

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