Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.83 – 121.8

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.6 ±11

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 29.04Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11469Ignis Mechanica

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 18.58Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 55.21Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.3 ±10.5

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 67.78Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 8.94Rank 25Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 45.08Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8370, 11469, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8370, 11469, 9418

Auto

22.7 23%

Teleop

48.1 49%

Endgame

27.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1477, 9121, 4295

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1477, 9121, 4295

Auto

38.0 32%

Teleop

49.2 41%

Endgame

33.1 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.8pts

Blue projected score121.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19
Score range: 79–146
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 132.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.6Season APEX322.3

22.7Auto38

48.1Teleop49.2

27Endgame33.1

50Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	33
teleop	41	35
endgame	32	10
foul	0	15
total	92	93

Result

Final score

92 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Match videos

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