Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281.84 – 102.62

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

333 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.3 ±8.8

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 127.71Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX -12.65Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 166.78Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.6 ±11

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 29.38Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11469Ignis Mechanica

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 18.37Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 54.87Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2848, 11200, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2848, 11200, 6369

Auto

48.5 17%

Teleop

158.1 56%

Endgame

76.0 27%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8370, 11469, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8370, 11469, 9418

Auto

22.9 23%

Teleop

49.2 50%

Endgame

25.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score281.8pts

Blue projected score102.6pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 179.2
Score range: 80–305
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 130.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.3Season APEX201.6

48.5Auto22.9

158.1Teleop49.2

76Endgame25.5

43Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	21
teleop	212	47
endgame	82	37
foul	0	5
total	333	110

Result

Final score

333 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 pts

Match videos

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