Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.6 – 69.66

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.3 ±10.5

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 67.74Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 9.19Rank 25Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 45.67Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.1 ±11

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 26.75Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 16.16Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 26.75Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1477, 9121, 4295

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1477, 9121, 4295

Auto

36.5 30%

Teleop

50.0 41%

Endgame

34.5 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5417, 2969, 5788

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5417, 2969, 5788

Auto

21.5 32%

Teleop

29.6 44%

Endgame

16.9 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122.6pts

Blue projected score69.7pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.9
Score range: 46–147
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 131.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.3Season APEX160.1

36.5Auto21.5

50Teleop29.6

34.5Endgame16.9

11Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	19
teleop	49	2
endgame	27	11
foul	0	0
total	121	32

Result

Final score

121 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts

Match videos

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