Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155 – 70.47

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

181 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324.9 ±11

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 57.93Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5613ThunderDogs

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 12.35Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 84.72Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.1 ±11

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 27.23Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2969Aftermath

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 16.3Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5788Eagle Spec Ops

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 26.94Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7506, 5613, 7492

/ 100 compat

Projected

155 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7506, 5613, 7492

Auto

22.7 15%

Teleop

86.2 57%

Endgame

42.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5417, 2969, 5788

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5417, 2969, 5788

Auto

21.1 31%

Teleop

28.2 41%

Endgame

19.2 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155pts

Blue projected score70.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.5
Score range: 46–179
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 131.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324.9Season APEX160.1

22.7Auto21.1

86.2Teleop28.2

42.3Endgame19.2

38Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	24
teleop	103	37
endgame	55	8
foul	0	0
total	181	69

Result

Final score

181 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 pts

Match videos

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