Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.09 – 121.73

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 511.7 ±9.3

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 97.01Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 9.48Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 71.6Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.3 ±10.5

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 67.11Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 8.78Rank 25Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4295Hudson Stingers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 45.84Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2881, 10994, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2881, 10994, 10014

Auto

43.4 25%

Teleop

87.5 50%

Endgame

44.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1477, 9121, 4295

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1477, 9121, 4295

Auto

34.7 29%

Teleop

49.5 41%

Endgame

36.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.1pts

Blue projected score121.7pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.4
Score range: 98–202
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 131.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

511.7Season APEX322.3

43.4Auto34.7

87.5Teleop49.5

44.6Endgame36.8

20Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	46
teleop	64	54
endgame	43	24
foul	0	5
total	165	129

Result

Final score

165 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 pts

Match videos

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