Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.07 – 100.26

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 120

Prediction missed · off by 12.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.7 ±11

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 56.5Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 8.72Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 45.85Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.6 ±11

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 28.44Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11469Ignis Mechanica

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 17.26Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 54.56Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8769, 2950, 3679

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8769, 2950, 3679

Auto

28.7 27%

Teleop

45.7 43%

Endgame

32.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8370, 11469, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8370, 11469, 9418

Auto

21.8 23%

Teleop

46.7 49%

Endgame

27.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.1pts

Blue projected score100.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.8
Score range: 76–135
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 131.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.7Season APEX201.6

28.7Auto21.8

45.7Teleop46.7

32.9Endgame27.2

15Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	29
teleop	48	65
endgame	35	16
foul	10	10
total	116	120

Result

Final score

116 – 120

Prediction missed · off by 12.3 pts

Match videos

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