Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

162.18 – 119.19

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

150 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324.9 ±11

7506WILDCARDS

Season APEX 151.2Event APEX 60.56Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5613ThunderDogs

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 14.44Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 87.18Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.7 ±11

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 58.87Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 11.23Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3679rattlers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 49.09Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7506, 5613, 7492

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7506, 5613, 7492

Auto

23.8 15%

Teleop

87.8 55%

Endgame

48.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8769, 2950, 3679

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8769, 2950, 3679

Auto

26.8 24%

Teleop

52.4 48%

Endgame

30.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.2pts

Blue projected score119.2pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43
Score range: 95–186
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 286 vs event baseline 132.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324.9Season APEX221.7

23.8Auto26.8

87.8Teleop52.4

48.2Endgame30.9

45Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	30
teleop	80	74
endgame	49	17
foul	0	15
total	150	136

Result

Final score

150 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 pts

Match videos

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