Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.61 – 77.25

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

180 – 7

Prediction missed · off by 92.8 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.8 ±10.5

5417Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 11.14Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 36.13Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11469Ignis Mechanica

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 17.34Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.8 ±11.6

2950Devastators

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 11.14Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 36.13Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5613ThunderDogs

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 29.98Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5417, 2848, 11469

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5417, 2848, 11469

Auto

16.6 26%

Teleop

28.7 44%

Endgame

19.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2950, 11200, 5613

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2950, 11200, 5613

Auto

18.6 26%

Teleop

31.3 43%

Endgame

22.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.6pts

Blue projected score77.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.6
Score range: 42–100
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 126.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.8Season APEX141.8

16.6Auto18.6

28.7Teleop31.3

19.4Endgame22.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	4
teleop	83	2
endgame	52	1
foul	0	0
total	180	7

Result

Final score

180 – 7

Prediction missed · off by 92.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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